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The Builder's Radar

USA vs China

dev metrics · updated 13 Oct 2026 · click a row to fly ·

Global inference share · text requests

USA
40.3%

US models · OpenAI · Google · Anthropic

CHN
47.9%

CN models · DeepSeek · Z.ai · Qwen · Xiaomi · Tencent

China still leads usage but the gap narrowed to 7.6 points (47.9% vs 40.3% of OpenRouter text requests, w/e 5-oct-2026) — and the volume crown is no longer 100% China: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash tops the world at 113T tokens/month, with US models GPT-5.6 Luna and Nemotron inside the top 10.→ CHINA

Frontier capability · Vals Index

USA
68.90%

best US model · Gemini 4 Argon

CHN
55.20%

best CN model · MiMo V2.6 Pro

Two fronts, two winners: China still leads usage (47.9% vs 40.3% of OpenRouter requests) but the US takes capability — 13.7 points between the best model of each region on Vals' independent leaderboard. Snapshot 13-oct-2026 (v2.1): they re-run the index as models are added, so the values move between visits.→ USA

Frontier training run · public cost

USA
> $100M

US runs · Grok 4 ≈ $388M (Epoch)

CHN
$3.47M

MiMo-V2.6 · RL phase (live log)

Xiaomi's entire livestreamed RL bill (Pro + Flash) is ~1/30 of one US frontier run — scopes differ, the efficiency gap doesn't.→ CHINA

Flagship API cost · $/1M input tokens

USA
$10.00

GPT-6 Astra

CHN
$1.32

DeepSeek V4 Pro

7.6x cheaper at the flagship tier — China keeps the floor under frontier pricing.→ CHINA

Value-tier API cost · $/1M input tokens

USA
$0.75

Gemini 3.8 Flash

CHN
$0.14

MiMo-V2.6-Flash (Xiaomi)

5.4x under Google's fast tier — Xiaomi's 309B/15B MoE (MIT, 1M ctx) prices for volume, not margin.→ CHINA

Open-weight flagships · tracked

USA
0 of 3

GPT-6 · Claude · Gemini closed

CHN
3 of 3

DeepSeek · Qwen · GLM open

Every tracked Chinese flagship ships open weights (MIT · Qwen & Z.ai lab licenses); all three US flagships stay closed.→ CHINA

Max flagship context window

USA
1.05M

GPT-6 Astra

CHN
1.05M

MiMo-V2.6 (Xiaomi)

Dead tie at 1.05M: Astra got there first (3-sep) and MiMo-V2.6 matched it (22-sep). RAG builders: both fit a mid-size codebase.→ USA

Consumer AI adoption · national stats

USA
61.8%

adults 18–64 · US RPS survey (May 2026)

CHN
>50%

share of population · CNNIC (H1 2026)

Denominators shown on purpose (they differ by design): the US surveys working-age adults, China counts the whole country — 700M+ users and past 50% penetration in H1-2026. US leads intensity, China leads velocity.→ USA

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